"Long-range forecasting: important yet almost impossible"
In this talk I will first explain why we desperately need long range forecasts; then I present arguments (far beyond what comes to ones mind immediately) why such forecasts are in general impossible. Some of the arguments are also important for our own life and for society in general. I conclude this section, however, with one dramatic long range prediction. In the rest of the talk I discuss some important aspects of WWW, smart phones and e-Learning and conclude by showing why the main 5 theses of Spitzer’s book “Digital dementia: how we ruin us and our children” are (fortunately) only partially correct, but why the impact of this book (in German, no translation exists so far) is potentially dangerous.
This talk is suitable for a general audience. Most but not all arguments deal with computers and applications.